Behaviour Over Time

Make a simple sketch

1. Choose one thing that matters. For example, the number of late deliveries each week. Be clear what “late” means.
2. Choose a useful period. Look far enough back to put today’s event in context—for example, the past six months.
3. Put time along the bottom. Put the amount or frequency up the side. Sketch the shape you think you would see. Exact numbers are not needed for an initial impression.
4. Compare sketches. Ask people who do the work and those affected to sketch separately, then discuss differences. What has each person seen or missed?

Label recollections as impressions to check, not measured evidence. If recorded data is available, use it—there is no need to avoid it or pretend you have not seen it.

What might the shape tell us?

• Rising or falling: is the problem becoming more or less frequent? Whether the direction is better or worse depends on what you measure.
• Repeating peaks and dips: what else repeats at those times? Check rather than assume a connection.
• Little overall change: is the problem persisting? A steady level is not necessarily an acceptable one.

For example, the team sketches late deliveries peaking near each month-end. Follow the work around those dates: do orders arrive in a rush, are dates promised without checking capacity, and where does work queue? The aim is to uncover how targets, promises, beliefs, decisions and working arrangements might combine to produce the recurring delays. Check that explanation with the people doing the work and against records before choosing a fix.

Check the picture

Compare the sketch with recorded data over the same period. A run chart can show the observations in time order. Use a suitable statistical method if you need to assess whether a change is distinguishable from routine variation.

A sketch does not prove a trend, identify a bottleneck or establish a cause. Different arrangements can produce similar shapes.

What’s your next useful question?

Where do our impressions differ—and what evidence would help us check them?

Choose one question and agree who will help answer it.