Built for healthcare improvers who need honest evidence of change · Test your data, avoid tampering, know what to do when nothing changes.
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Statistical Evidence Table
The government aims to eradicate corridor care by end of Parliament. Four initiatives — Joiner level analysis applied in advance. The pre-committed prediction: Bootstrap CUSUM will not find a structural change point unless the discharge constraint is addressed at system level.
England exceeded the dementia diagnosis target from 2017–2020. Then COVID produced the largest single-year fall in the series. Bootstrap CUSUM finds one stage, mean 65.39%. By March 2025 England is still 1.1 percentage points below a target set in 2012.
Bootstrap CUSUM on 80 months of NHS GP appointments data finds one finding that cuts through the political noise: GP doctor contact rates have not changed since 2018. The system grew. The GP contact rate didn’t. A system problem, not a people problem.
How X-mR, Run Chart, and Bootstrap CUSUM tell radically different stories from 488 weeks of clinical data — and why it matters for governance reporting.
What Bootstrap CUSUM reveals about the long deceleration of UK GDP — and why conventional analysis has been telling us the wrong story.
Two identical plants, a 17% efficiency gap, and the residual CUSUM monitoring system — built on one reading per shift, pen and paper — that solved it.
Bootstrap CUSUM applied to 15 years of monthly data reveals four structural stages of decline. Not one policy intervention is detectable as an improvement. Tony Blair promised four-hour waits in 2000. Twenty-five years later, performance is worse.
Bootstrap CUSUM on a decade of Marylebone Road NO2 data finds the ULEZ signal appeared 18 months before the scheme launched. But the biggest single change was COVID — and the London-wide expansion improved air quality at a site already in the zone for four years.
Bootstrap CUSUM finds three structural change points in NHS anticoagulation safety data. The DOAC adverse event rate fell 96% from peak. But even by 2019, half of DOAC prescriptions were still not adjusted for renal function. The improvement is real. The job is not done.
The engineering solution has existed since 2010. The NHS declared wrong-route medication administration “wholly preventable.” Bootstrap CUSUM on six years of Never Events data finds one stage, no change point, mean 17.5 per year. Paul O’Neill fixed this at Alcoa. The difference is method.
The UK cut emissions 53% since 1990. Bootstrap CUSUM identifies three causes: energy market liberalisation (1998), the global financial crisis (2008), and the carbon price floor (2015). Only the last is climate policy. Transport shows no structural change at 95% confidence across 34 years.
Six bedside actions. 96% of NHS hospitals. 37 countries. Bootstrap CUSUM on 22 years of ONS mortality data finds one stage and no change point in either clinical series. But the ratio between the two series shows a structural change point in 2013 at 95.5% confidence — the year the CQUIN coding incentive was introduced. Better coding. Not better outcomes. Not worse. The study step of PDSA was never completed.