The Investigator's Protocol
To avoid the "Tampering Trap," professional investigators use the Western Electric Statistical Process Control (SPC) rules. These standard pattern tests help you distinguish between routine background noise and a system that has fundamentally shifted.
The "Big Four" Western Electric Patterns
You don't need a math degree or a spreadsheet full of formulas to use these principles. You simply need to plot the spots.
If calculating averages and standard deviations (SD) feels like a hurdle, let the StepChange Analyzer do the heavy lifting for you. Our tool automatically calculates your process average and defines the "normal" boundaries, highlighting these Western Electric patterns the moment they appear in your data.
When you look at your chart, keep an eye out for these signals defined by the Western Electric principles:
- Rule 1: The Outlier
One single point falls far outside the "normal" bounds (3-sigma).
Investigator's Action: Check for a specific, singular cause. Don't panic; it’s likely just a one-off event. - Rule 2: The Run
Nine or more points in a row stay on one side of the average line.
Investigator's Action: The system has shifted. Something changed in the process—investigate what it was. - Rule 3: The Trend
Six or more points in a row are steadily climbing or falling.
Investigator's Action: You have a "drift." Intervene now to steer the process back before it hits a danger zone. - Rule 4: The Shift
Two out of three consecutive points fall near the outer danger limits (2-sigma).
Investigator's Action: This is an early warning siren. The process is being pushed to its limit—find the lever and stabilize it.
The Golden Rule
If your data does not show these patterns, the system is "in control." Any movement you see is just the natural rhythm of the system. Do not adjust your process. Tampering with a stable system is the fastest way to introduce unwanted chaos.
Want the full case for why acting on a single reading backfires? Read The Trap of Tampering for the worked example.
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